It Takes Two - Dave Canales & Brad Idzik, Trying to Claw the Carolina Panthers Back into Relevance
File under Offensive Coordinator/Play Caller Profiles
Some quick notes. Firstly, I’m changing part of the structure up a bit for the OC profiles. This means cutting game flow expectations out.
In a majority of cases, if a team is behind they’re going to pass, if a team is ahead they’re going to run. It feels redundant, so instead I’ll be swapping in more useful metrics like previous season turnovers and 1st, 3rd, and red zone efficiency.
Second, we’re on our first team where the HC is the one projected to be the one calling the plays most of the time. We’ll come across a few others like this, so just be prepared instead of focusing heavily on Brad Idzik, I’ll be zeroing in on Dave Canales.
I’m pretty familiar with Canales (and to a lesser extent Idzik) since he was our OC at the Bucs two seasons ago.
Canales brings extensive experience from 13 seasons with the Seattle Seahawks under Pete Carroll, plus a successful 2023 campaign as Tampa Bay's offensive coordinator where he helped Baker Mayfield achieve a renaissance of his career.
People were pretty skeptical of Canales when he first came in, but he quickly reversed that perception as Baker became a real factor again in the NFL and the Bucs went to the playoffs yet again.
Idzik has followed Canales from Seattle to Tampa Bay to Carolina, developing expertise in receiver coaching and offensive quality control that now expands to coordinator-level responsibilities.
Coaching Tree
Canales represents one branch of Pete Carroll's extensive coaching tree, beginning as an assistant strength coach at USC in 2009 before following Carroll to Seattle in 2010.
The Carroll coaching tree emphasizes: relentless positivity (this is Canales to a tee) and feisty spirit, cultural emphasis on fun while maintaining competitive standards.
I think one of the main reasons the Panthers grabbed Canales was what he could potentially do for not only the locker room, but for Bryce Young specifically.
The Panthers invested heavily in Young his draft year, trading up to take him number 1 overall, to, ultimately, mixed results.
If there’s one guy who could come in and help make things lighter, better, more positive, I can totally see them thinking ‘the guy’ would be Canales.
Idzik, as OC, represents a different developmental path, but he’s spent his entire career learning under Canales. Idzik's background focuses heavily on receiver development and analytical approaches to offensive football.
The Good News
Canales is primarily focused on QB development, quick-strike passing concepts, and maximizing individual player strengths.
Canales' success with Baker is proof of that.
And this was not necessarily an easy task, given Baker was coming in to replace Tom Brady.
Canales isn't afraid to call plays that stress defenses, but he does so within a framework that protects the players and maintains possession security. It can err on the side of being too conservative however.
Canales has adapted his system to highlight Young's mobility and quick processing ability.
You’ll hear it a lot, Young is not a tall QB, so everyone needs to get creative to get plays going in a different way than your average strong-arm gunslinger type.
The Bad News
Look, the Panthers have been in the basement in terms of key metrics. They were in the bottom 5 for almost every single performance metric I mentioned in the opening.
The Panthers turned the ball over 9x compared to opponents.
They were one of the teams with the least explosive plays all last season.
And they were in the bottom 5 in terms of first down and third down.
They did ok in red zone efficiency.
This is not a knock on the Panthers, these are just facts.
If they want to be better this year, and if they want to offer some semblance of Fantasy relevance, they need a BIG leap.
Dial it Up to 11
Canales' personnel usage reflects his West Coast offensive background with modern adaptations that birth multiple formations with similar concepts but from different looks, in the attempt to create confusion for defensive coordinators.
Canales will mostly use 11 Personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs). It’s a base package, allowing for maximum receiver distribution and quick-hitting concepts.
Last season the Panthers used this over 70% of the time though, which shows they need to get more creative. It’s good news for Hubbard drafters, but leaves the target share for receivers a bit muddled.
Unit by Unit
Run Game: I’ve always felt Seattle had a pretty decent run game and Canales will roll out the full playbook; traditional handoffs, screen passes, and motion concepts. Although he’ll sometimes run it up the gut, there’s a lot of unique and play action concepts that will be weaved in to help RBs succeed.
Passing: Carolina ranked 30th in passing yards per game (187.5) in 2024. Yikes.
They aim for precise route running and timing concepts, but usually end up with short yardage.
Carolina started out pretty conservative and then opened up a bit toward the end of the season. If they can start where they left off, they could make a leap this year.
Tight Ends: Used as both traditional blockers and diverse receiving threats, often employing motion and formation shifts to create confusion. But don’t expect Gronkowski/Kittle/Kelce magic here.
Red Zone: Carolina's 9th-ranked red zone touchdown efficiency (62.0%) represents Canales' greatest schematic success in his first season.
The Carolina Rocking Chair
QB: Bryce Young's improvement under Canales is a mixed success. Young's 15 touchdown passes and 8 interceptions in 2024, along with 223 rushing yards and 5 rushing touchdowns, demonstrate significant development from his difficult 2023 rookie season.
Keep in mind though, they benched Young early in the season and installed Andy Dalton. Later, Young was able to take over the position again as starter.
Will we see something similar again this season if Young struggles in his start?
RB: Expect diverse usage patterns for Chuba Hubbard, Rico Dowdle, and Trevor Etienne (not to be confused with his older brother on the Jaguars, Travis). With Hubbard getting most of the touches.
Hubbard has always been a good floor pick since McCaffrey left the team to join the 49ers.
WR: Brad Idzik's background with receivers is encouraging, but so much depends if they can up their passing game this year.
There’s a lot of hopium landing on Tetairoa McMillan, and you’re paying a price for him in drafts, simply because the rest of the room is so meh.
Xavier Legette was touted a bit last year and fell short.
Although Adam Thielen constantly gets disrespected, so many winning teams in Best Ball have taken him late and it paid off. Thielen fits the security blanket role to me, it may stay that way.
TE: Similarly, to Legette, some experts had high hopes for Ja’Tavion Sanders last year, but he proved to be mid in terms of Fantasy production.
And the Carolina Lighthouse
Canales and Idzik may benefit from continuity and deeper understanding of their personnel.
Young could take significant steps forward.
Tet McMillan might flash as a superstar.
But, wow, that’s a lot of what-ifs.
Expect the Panthers to build on their foundation with increased complexity, better execution, and continued emphasis on Young’s development.
Guys I’m leaving Drafts with: Not many. Hubbard is always a reliable floor pick imho, basically a Steady Eddy, and Thielen always being called toast and then appearing as a league winner will likely continue.
You can sprinkle Tet or others in, but I'm still not sold on this offense.
Here’s to Champions,
Mike
P.S. If you’re enjoying this Offensive Coordinator/Play Caller series, be sure to check out the previous entries as well -
